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Episode 1395: Trade Dreams and Low Seams
Date June 27, 2019 Summary In a bonus episode, Ben Lindbergh banters with FanGraphs writer Craig Edwards about Craig’s explanation for the struggles of José Ramírez, and then (11:15) Ben and Craig talk to John Bitzer, founder and editor of the new site Baseball Trade Values, about designing the trade-simulation site, the challenges of valuing players and constructing fair baseball trades, how he used real trades to refine his trade model, whether teams might scout for front-office talent via his site, how he accounts for changing team behavior, the outlook for the 2019 trade deadline, and more. Then (49:12) Ben brings on astrophysicist and contributor to The Athletic Dr. Meredith Wills to discuss her groundbreaking research into the construction of the baseball, the difficulty of disassembling the ball, why and how the 2019 ball is different from the 2018 ball, the multiple phases of home-run-happy balls, what MLB could do to suppress the home-run rate, solving home run mysteries with science, and more. Topics * Interview with John Bitzer about Baseball Trade Values * Developing a trade valuation tool * Evaluating short and long term trade trends * Surprising deviations from the trade value model * Mike Trout's surplus value * Most and leave valuable players * Adjusting for historical team behavior * Front-office use of John's site * Anticipating trade deadline moves * Interview with Meredith Wills * Changes to the baseball * Lace thickness and height * Increase in home-run rate * Spring training baseballs * Differences with the 2019 baseball * Rawlings' ball standards and quality control * Pitcher blister problems * Impact on pitch spin Intro Matthew Sweet, "Trade Places" Interstitial The Inbreds, "Drag Us Down" Outro Stevie Nicks (Feat. Don Henley), "Leather and Lace" Banter * Episode 1390 follow-up: Craig thinks that Jose Ramirez's struggles are due to plate discipline or an approach issue. Notes * John hopes to launch a three team trade feature soon. He also is interested in exploring other variables including team payroll, longer term trade trends, and GM decision making patterns. * Ben reads a passage trimmed from The MVP Machine that details how teams will sometimes trade proprietary data along with players. * As part of her research Meredith is unwinding the yarn from baseball which she is in turn using to knit socks for Hall of Fame fundraisers. * Meredith says the 2019 baseball is so different that it almost looks as though there was a new ball supplier. The biggest changes are that the seams are lower (by almost 50%), roundness of the ball, and smoothness of the leather. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1395: Trade Dreams and Low Seams * Jose Ramirez Isn't That Far Off by Craig Edwards * Baseball Trade Values * Internet Commenters Try to Trade for Giancarlo Stanton by Ben Lindbergh * Internet Commenters Try to Trade for David Price by Ben Lindbergh * Yes, the baseball is different - again by Meredith Wills * How one tiny change to the baseball may have led to both the home run surge and the rise in pitcher blisters by Meredith Wills * MLB's Blister Problem Is Real by Ben Lindbergh * A Baseball Mystery: The Home Run Is Back, And No One Knows Why by Rob Arthur and Ben Lindbergh * Are Juiced Balls The New Steroids? by Ben Lindbergh and Rob Arthur * Fly Ball Carry and the Home Run Surge by Alan Nathan * Key takeaways from MLB study of HR rates by Anthony Castrovince * The Baseball Is Juiced (Again) by Rob Arthur * The Rabbit Ball is Flying in Triple-A Too by Rob Arthur * Possible difference in the baseball a bitter pill for pitchers by David Lennon Category:Guest Episodes Category:Episodes